Why Europe ignores the warnings on Turkey’s democratic decline

The E.U.-Turkey relationship is more transactional than ever.

MERT KARTAL

The European Parliament recently released another strongly worded report criticizing Turkey’s E.U. membership prospects. A large majority within the parliament backed the report, which raised alarm over the “continued deterioration” of the rule of law in Turkey. In April, in the largest anti-government protests in over a decade, a significant portion of the Turkish population also voiced their frustration.

The Turkish government quickly dismissed the criticism, calling the report “distorted, prejudiced, and baseless.” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned that protesters would “pay a heavy price.” And government prosecutors have arrested opposition politicians and cracked down on protesters in recent months.

Europe’s democratic institutions have been more muted

More striking than Ankara’s reaction is the silence from a number of key European Union institutions. Nongovernmental organizations like Amnesty International have warned that ignoring these trends may reinforce authoritarianism in Turkey. Yet both the European Commission and the European Council remain committed to deepening collaboration with Turkey – not censuring it.

The concerns of civil society groups like Amnesty carry considerable weight. Ultimately, the European Parliament’s position will shape Turkey’s long-term accession prospects. One critical question is whether the E.U. has any meaningful leverage over Turkey. Given Europe’s shifting security and defense priorities, the answer may well be “not any more.”

The European Parliament remains a constrained critic

Research suggests that the European Parliament’s role in international relations has expanded considerably since the Lisbon Treaty in 2009. When it comes to E.U. enlargement, the parliament’s biggest power lies in the final stage of the process. As stated in Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, no country can join the bloc without receiving the parliament’s consent.

Turkey applied for E.U. membership in April 1987. Throughout Turkey’s long-running bid for membership, the parliament has been a strong critic. Even when accession talks began in 2005, it raised red flagsabout the country’s democratic health. Since the 2010s, that skepticism has grown louder. Members of parliament have condemned what they view as increasing restrictions on civil liberties, political pressure on courts, and unchecked executive power in Turkey.

This latest report describes the arrest of Istanbul’s Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu as a “politically motivated move” aimed at sidelining a prominent opposition figure before elections. For members of the European Parliament, this incident provides further evidence that Turkey is sliding toward a fully authoritarian model, and further distancing itself from E.U. membership standards.

Other E.U. institutions are much less critical of Turkey

Despite the parliament’s clear stance, a broader shift in E.U. policy toward Turkey seems unlikely. The European Council – which sets the E.U.’s overall direction and priorities – has remained mostly silent. The European Commission, which is responsible for proposing and enforcing legislation, along with managing the E.U. budget policy, has issued only mild calls for the Turkish government to respect democratic values. As scholarship from the early 2000s predicted, the commission has followed the European Council’s lead rather than supporting the parliament or taking an independent position.

In Turkey’s case, this institutional silence is nothing new. Many analysts argue that the E.U. began losing its leverage over Ankara as early as 2016, when Turkey and the E.U. signed the refugee deal. Since then, Turkey’s strategic importance has steadily increased – although its democratic credentials have continued to erode, as scholars of Turkish politics have observed.

E.U. countries are slow to criticize Turkey

E.U. member governments have also shown little appetite for open criticism. In the final days of his tenure, German Chancellor Scholz halted the sale of Eurofighter jets to Turkey, citing concerns about İmamoğlu’s arrest. However, Friedrich Merz, Scholz’s successor, recently proposed a shift in Germany’s stance to encourage Turkey’s involvement in European military initiatives. Spain, too, seems eager to deepen ties. At a recent high-level meeting, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez advocated for increased cooperation with Ankara, disregarding warnings from the European Parliament.

Taking a tempered approach to Turkey’s domestic politics reflects broader shifts in Europe’s security priorities. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the growing instability in the Middle East have compelled E.U. governments to seek deeper cooperation on defense and counterterrorism. Increasingly, they see Turkey as an essential partner on these security priorities.

Public opinion has shifted in the same direction. According to the latest Eurobarometer survey, 78% of Europeans worry about E.U. defense and security over the next five years. While democracy remains important to Europeans, concerns like migration, defense, and the economy now rank higher than “threats to democracy.”

For many politicians in Brussels, this means turning a blind eye. The E.U.’s growing dependence on Turkey for energy, migration control, and regional security has limited Europe’s ability and willingness to confront Ankara over domestic issues. Europeans may not view Turkey under the current leadership of the Erdoğan government as a credible candidate for E.U. membership. But they treat Turkey as a necessary partner – authoritarian or not.

Turkey’s membership looks increasingly unlikely

Turkish officials maintain that E.U. membership remains a national goal. Yet, these claims often stress geopolitics, and Turkey’s value as a security partner. The European Parliament has rejected this view. The parliament argues that strategic value cannot compensate for eroding democratic standards. In fact, parliamentarians warn that framing Turkey as a “partner” rather than a “candidate” only further undermines its chances of accession.

Achieving membership would require far-reaching policy and economic changes. Yet, scholars increasingly view these shifts as incompatible with Turkey’s current trajectory. Analysts note that, as early as the 2010s, Erdoğan began prioritizing power consolidation over E.U. membership. Since then, Turkey has struck deals with the E.U. on refugees, trade, and defense – often gaining concessions without offering any real changes that would boost its accession bid.

Public support in Turkey has followed this trend. In 2005, nearly 70% of Turkish citizens backed E.U. membership. By 2017, support had dropped to around 40%. More recently, support has ticked up to 56%, likely driven more by economic desperation than renewed faith in the E.U. process.

Research shows that the E.U. did help push for political, economic, and administrative changes in candidate countries during the early 2000s. But more recent studies suggest that the E.U.’s influence has diminished. As Europe shifts its focus to security, its role as a promoter of democracy appears to be fading. The E.U.’s current stance toward Turkey may be a telling example of this shift.

The E.U.-Turkey relationship is more transactional than ever

The E.U.’s ties with Turkey today resemble a strategic partnership more than a genuine accession process. This shift has weakened Europe’s ability to shape political developments in Turkey. The E.U.’s normative influence, once a key driver of political and economic change, has steadily eroded.

Unless both sides commit to recalibrating their goals, the relationship is likely to remain transactional in nature. Shared strategic interests, not shared democratic principles, will continue to define Turkey’s ties to Europe.

Turkey may soon lose whatever remains of its weakened bid for E.U. membership. But the greater cost may fall on the E.U. As its credibility as a defender of democracy continues to erode, the European Union may find itself even more exposed to the growing tide of Euroskepticism across the continent.

Mert Kartal is a 2025-2026 Good Authority fellow.