Will there ever be comprehensive immigration reform in the U.S.?

Immigration reform remains popular, but Trump may have closed the window – for now.

ERIC GONZALEZ JUENKE

On Feb. 13, 2016, Senators Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) stood on stage at the GOP presidential primary debate and goaded each other about who could do more to slow immigration to the United States. Cruz promised to reverse President Obama’s DACA policy on “day one” of his administration, and chided Rubio’s support for what Cruz called an immigration “amnesty plan.” Rubio mocked Cruz for declaring, “I want immigration reform to pass. I want people to come out of the shadows.” Rubio also noted that Cruz wanted to massively increase the number of green card holders and guest workers.

Both men had advocated for comprehensive immigration solutions for years, including a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Yet, on stage with candidate Donald Trump standing between them, they competed to move far away from their previous efforts. How did these two senators – each the son of Cuban immigrants – get to this political moment? And what did this and other public displays foreshadow about the changes within the Republican Party and, consequently the U.S. Congress, on immigration policy a decade later?

The big immigration shift

The failure of that 2013 comprehensive immigration bill in the U.S. Senate was a massive blow for reformers like Rubio. Many in Congress saw this legislation as the best hope for continued bipartisan policy balancing of 1) openness to immigrants and amnesty for longtime undocumented residents, and 2) increased border security and enforcement. The “Gang of Eight” 2013 compromise legislation was an admission from the GOP that the Latino vote was key to future Republican success after the 2012 presidential loss.

The agreement, however, relied on a bipartisan Cold War coalition on immigration that no longer existed. The bill died in the House – it was never brought up for a vote – after passing easily in the Senate, 68-32. Championing this failed measure became a weak spot for Rubio in every 2016 debate, turning a potential legislative triumph into a liability he could not overcome.

A new GOP and a new legislative reality

Perhaps no one was more responsible for coordinating the failure of the 2013 bill than Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), with the energetic help of a young aide named Stephen Miller. Sessions had embodied the right wing of the immigration fight in Congress for decades. A forerunner of Trump’s anti-immigrant vision of the GOP, he was the first senator to endorse Trump in 2016. Trump rewarded Sessions by naming him attorney general. Sessions then began altering the way America’s immigration system functioned, until he ran afoul of Trump in 2018 and was fired.

In backing Trump and Sessions, the GOP had decided on a hardline immigration approach. The Republican party appeared willing to trade the Latino vote, and focus on white and working class voters who blamed immigrantsfor declining economic opportunities.

A decade later, Session’s efforts set the stage for Stephen Miller to further dismantle the immigration status quoduring Trump’s second term. Since January 2025, Trump administration executive orders and policies have pushed the immigration window as far to the right as we have seen in the last 60 years. “Mass deportation,” one article suggested, has become Miller’s daily policy goal in Trump’s second term, stretching federal immigration enforcement to its limits.

2028 and beyond: an uncertain future

What happens to immigration policy in a post-Trump Republican Party? Speculation that Marco Rubio may be Trump’s GOP heir could signal a return to bipartisan congressional compromise on the issue. It’s possible that the 121st Congress, to be sworn in after the 2028 elections, could try to revive a version of the “Gang of Eight” bill. Smaller, more conservative policy changes were unsuccessful in 2018 and 2023 but the Congressional desire for an immigration policy overhaul hasn’t disappeared.

Congress’ latest attempt to tackle immigration policy in a bipartisan manner is the Dignity Act. The bill’s main sponsors, Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla. ) and Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) faced sustained backlash after the bill’s release in the summer of 2025. A new and fragmented ideological media system quickly organizedagainst Salazar and any potential GOP supporters before the legislation could make it out of committee. And Salazar continues to fight her own party over the idea of “amnesty,” something she vehemently denies is part of her bill.

The discussion on immigration policy has shifted to the right

Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024, and the associated changes to the GOP coalition and conservative media ecosystem, may make a path to citizenship for undocumented residents a non-starter for any future legislation. Alternatively, these changes may have just shifted the compromise point in a conservative direction. Recent debates over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding seem to suggest that the GOP is open to discussion on their terms. But Democrats worry that their push for some form of legal status for the nation’s undocumented will never come, despite unprecedented budgets for border and interior enforcement.

Trump and Miller, his policy deputy, may have closed the reform window, at least for now. The Trump administration’s emphasis on enforcement and security without any compromise on amnesty – while the GOP gained Latino voters in 2020 and 2024 – may be a temporary normal. Congressional Democrats took a strong stance against funding DHS and ICE immigration crackdowns but the debate remains largely on GOP enforcement turf.

Even Republican voters support citizenship pathways

Recent polling suggests that Republican voters support a path to citizenship for the undocumented, but also support securing the U.S. border. These two pillars of comprehensive immigration policy, in fact, enjoy majority support from all voters. The differences emerge in disagreements over deportation policy and what levels of immigration the U.S. should support going forward. But polling also shows broad bipartisan voter support for fixing the U.S. immigration system.

The media coverage of tough, enforcement-only policy in action over the past year has eroded Trump’s Latino support. The public’s thermostatic opinion has now shifted back to favor more compassionate immigration solutions. Business leaders are also sounding the economic alarm on the effects of Trump’s strict immigration enforcement, suggesting another powerful policy frame for a comprehensive solution in the future.

An intractable part of the GOP coalition?

While the U.S. public, interest groups, and some Congressional leaders are interested in making bipartisan compromises, the president appears driven by his own preferences and those within the GOP-friendly media system. Consequently, a comprehensive immigration overhaul bill seems unlikely while Trump holds office. Legislating a path to citizenship appears impossible right now. Even “dreamers,” the DACA recipients who were brought to the U.S. as children, are not immune from deportation.

Of course, things can change fast in politics, as Trump’s meteoric rise itself has shown. What remains to be seen is how far this administration has pushed the entire GOP to the right on immigration – and what bipartisan measures might be possible once Donald Trump and Stephen Miller have left the White House. A Democratic administration, or a more “establishment” Republican – perhaps a Latino president – might be able to achieve a bipartisan immigration solution for the first time since President Ronald Reagan signed the Immigration Reform and Control Act 40 years ago.

Eric Gonzalez Juenke is a 2025-2026 Good Authority fellow.

Read the Good Authority series on U.S. immigration policy

• The unanticipated consequences of racialized immigration policy

• Why elected leaders began to speak more positively about immigration 75 years ago

• Congress used to pass bipartisan immigration laws. What happened?

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